Market narrative
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Recovery leg from 1.1324 (2026 low, posted last week) started to lose traction, as better than expected inflation numbers from some EU member countries (Germany, France, Italy) cooled expectations for ECB rate hike.
Forex
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8067 vs. 6.8109 previous
USD/CAD shows signs of a pullback, AUD/CAD holds above key support, and CAD/JPY rallies on yen weakness despite subdued crude.
It's the first trading day of a new month, and hopefully a period where we can start putting a little more faith in market signals than we've been able to over the past week. Quarter-end flows have muddied the waters across markets recently, making it difficult to know whether moves can be trusted.
Gold flatlines near $4,000 as markets focus on US-Iran talks and upcoming employment data
Silver prices are coiling in a four-day range as traders await Warsh and NFP. See key support, resistance and the breakout levels to watch.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG trapped below $60 as bears eye $55
Gold is attempting to establish a short-term bottom after testing key support, with a bullish hammer setup and breakout levels offering the first signs of recovery.
Gold rises above $4,000 yet poised for an 11% monthly loss
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Hold key support, bulls eye YTD high
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Recovery faces resistance at 0.5700
AUD/USD is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline from the monthly highs, with price holding confluent downtrend support into the close of June. An outside-day reversal is taking shape just above the lower bounds of the downtrend, raising the possibility that downside momentum may be fading as the market heads into July.
Gold and silver are moving higher despite stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields.
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds firm as political stability offsets UK growth miss
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
Euro trims losses against the US Dollar, but Fed rate-hike bets keep gains in check.
These remain difficult sessions for the euro in the short term. Despite the recovery attempt at the start of the week, EUR/USD is still down by a little more than 0.1% during the session and is once again trading below the 1.1400 area.
Traders are exercising caution on the USD/ZAR ahead of two high-profile risk events this week, even as a bullish chart pattern evolves.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD attempts to reclaim $60 as bearish trend persists
Euro: Resistance at 1.1450 caps upside against US Dollar – Scotiabank
